Opinion 2012: the White House and Senate

Opinion 2012: the White House and Senate
Commentary by Sanford D. Horn
November 4, 2012

After much anticipation, I am prepared to release my 2012 Election picks for the 50 (no matter how much Obama wants us to believe there are 57) states as well as 17 of the Senate races. While there are 33 Senate seats up for grabs, in my estimation, 16 of those seats are no mystery as to who will win.

I hope all who are eligible will take their civic responsibility to heart and cast their ballots, if they have not already done so. Let the record show, I am against early voting, which should be for legitimate absentee issues only. If someone is too lazy to go to their polling place on Election Day, that is truly sad. The law requires employers to allow their employees time to vote on Election Day without penalty, so that should not be an issue.

With the possibilities of voter fraud and computer hacking beyond comprehension, I also oppose on-line voting. Quite frankly, I question the security of the electronic machines, already hearing stories of people attempting to vote for Gov. Mitt Romney but the machine attempts to cast a vote for Barack Obama. As far as I am concerned, paper ballots with an equal number of representatives from the major parties serving as witnesses to sign off on the legitimacy of the count work just fine. And that leads into my next concern – media reporting of the returns.

If paper balloting takes longer to record results than the electronic formats, the advantage goes to the voter on the left coast. When polls close in the East at 6, 7 or even 8 p.m., it is still 3, 4 and 5 in the afternoon on the left coast. Announcing the results in the eastern states may potentially influence voters who have yet to cast their ballots. I offer two potential solutions.

The first is that none of the news outlets or agencies report any results until 11 p.m. EST when the polls close in the Pacific Time Zone. The alternative is to report the non-presidential results in each time zone as polls close – gubernatorial, senate, house, mayoral races, etc. There are plenty of those races to keep people occupied for an hour until the next time zone reports in, etc.

If states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin go Romney’s way on Tuesday, it will be an early night and a route for the GOP. While I have those states in Obama’s column, they are the same canary in the mineshaft that Indiana was in 2008. When the Hoosier State reported in for Obama by 7:30 p.m. the race for the White House was over.

Without any further ado, my predictions for the presidential and select senate races of 2012. Agree or disagree on these predictions, I feel confident we can all agree we are thrilled to be rid of the campaign ads flooding our airwaves.

STATE	ELECTORAL VOTES	W. MITT ROMNEY (R)	BARACK H. OBAMA (D)	CUMULATIVE TOTAL FOR ROMNEY	CUMULATIVE TOTAL FOR OBAMA
Alabama	9	X		9	0
Alaska	3	X		12	0
Arizona	11	X		23	0
Arkansas	6	X		29	0
California	55		X	29	55
Colorado	9	X		38	55
Connecticut	7		X	38	62
Delaware	3		X	38	65
Florida	29	X		67	65
Georgia	16	X		83	65
Hawaii	4		X	83	69
Idaho	4	X		87	69
Illinois	20		X	87	89
Indiana	11	X		98	89
Iowa	6		X	98	95
Kansas	6	X		104	95
Kentucky	8	X		112	95
Louisiana	8	X		120	95
Maine	4		X	120	99
Maryland	10		X	120	109
Massachusetts	11		X	120	120
Michigan	16		X	120	136
Minnesota	10		X	120	146
Mississippi	6	X		126	146
Missouri	10	X		136	146
Montana	3	X		139	146
Nebraska	5	X		144	146
Nevada	6	X		150	146
New Hampshire	4		X	150	150
New Jersey	14		X	150	164
New Mexico	5		X	150	169
New York	29		X	150	198
North Carolina	15	X		165	198
North Dakota	3	X		168	198
Ohio	18	X		186	198
Oklahoma	7	X		193	198
Oregon	7		X	193	205
Pennsylvania	20		X	193	225
Rhode Island	4		X	193	229
South Carolina	9	X		202	229
South Dakota	3	X		205	229
Tennessee	11	X		216	229
Texas	38	X		254	229
Utah	6	X		260	229
Vermont	3		X	260	232
Virginia	13	X		273	232
Washington	12		X	273	244
West Virginia	5	X		278	244
Wisconsin	10		X	278	254
Wyoming	3	X		281	254
Washington, DC	3		X	281	257
ROMNEY WINS				281	257

If I were hedging my bets, I would suggest that Romney’s slimmest margin of victory would be 275-263 using the above numbers, but putting Nevada (6) in Obama’s column. I would also suggest Romney’s largest margin of victory would be 301-237 with Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), and Wisconsin (10) sliding over to the Romney column.

Senate Races

Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) a popular fiscal conservative should be able to replace retiring GOP Sen. John Kyl by defeating Richard Carmona (D).

Connecticut: Former Congressman Chris Shays (D) seems to have an edge over Linda McMahon (R) of World Wide Wrestling fame to replace retiring Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I).

Florida: Taking the wimp’s way out, this race should go to whoever takes the state in the presidential race. That said, it looks like I am picking GOP Congressman Connie Mack to defeat incumbent Bill Nelson (D), and gain a seat for the GOP.

Hawaii: This race interests me because not only will the Aloha State elect a woman to the US Senate, she will be a Jewish Republican in former Governor Linda Lingle who has already defeated US Rep. Mazie Hirono in a statewide race. This will be a GOP pickup as Dem. Sen. Daniel Akaka is retiring.

Indiana: While one state giveth, another taketh away. The Hawaii gain will be given back to the Dems. In the form of US Rep. Joe Donnelly who will defeat gaffe-prone GOP Richard Mourdock to replace long-time GOP Sen. Richard Lugar.

Maine: This three-way race intrigues me because I think Independent and former Governor Angus King will once again reign in Maine defeating Charlie Summers (R) and Cynthia Dill (D) to replace the retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe (R).

Massachusetts: Incumbent Scott Brown (R), yes, you read that correctly – he’s the Republican who won the special election following the death of Ted Kennedy, will narrowly edge out Elizabeth Warren (D) and retain the seat. Warren’s campaign has been rife with questionable statements about her own resume and heritage.

Michigan: Sadly, I think Debbie Stabenow (D) will retain this seat skating by over former US Rep. Pete Hoekstra due to Obama winning the state. Make no mistake; she has been no prize for Michigan.

Missouri: Teaching Richard Mourdock (IN) how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, US Rep. Todd Akin (R) will lose a race that was his for the taking over unpopular incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill.

Montana: The state’s lone US Rep. Denny Rehberg should be able to flip Montana for the GOP by defeating one-term incumbent Democrat John Tester, in spite of a third party candidate claiming Rehberg is not conservative enough.

Nebraska: With Ben Nelson (D) retiring, former Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey is seeking a return to Washington, DC. Standing in his way is State Senator Deb Fischer (R), who I predict will keep Kerrey in retirement.

Nevada: Recent incumbent Dean Heller (R), who filled the seat of John Ensign who resigned due to a scandal, seeks the seat for a full term, and should be able to defeat US Rep. Shelley Berkley (D).

New Mexico: In a battle of two former congressmen to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D), I give the edge to moderate Republican Heather Wilson over Martin Heinrich. This is the same state that elected another female Republican – Susana Martinez governor in 2010.

Ohio: As I said regarding Florida, I am taking the wimp’s way out and calling this one for whomever wins the presidential vote in the Buckeye State. That said, having called Ohio for Romney, I am taking the young, Jewish Marine and State Treasurer Josh Mandel to unseat incumbent Sherrod Brown and flip Ohio back to the GOP.

Texas: Having overcome long odds to win the GOP primary, Ted Cruz the Lone Star State’s former solicitor general should Cruz to victory over former State Rep. Paul Sadler to replace the retiring Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who will be missed in the Senate.

Virginia: See also Florida and Ohio, and I am way too close to this race to be completely objective, but in the battle of former governors George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D), if Romney wins in the Old Dominion as I predicted, Allen will return to the Senate and Kaine can continue to botch things for the DNC. An Allen win would flip the commonwealth as retiring Sen. Jim Webb is a Democrat.

Wisconsin: Former HHS Secretary and Governor Tommy Thompson should win this seat for the GOP defeating US Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D). A Thompson victory would flip the state to the GOP in the wake of retiring Sen. Herb Kohl.

Of the 67 senators not up for reelection this year, 37 are Republicans and 30 are Democrats. There are five senate races that are virtual locks for the GOP and 11 for the Democrats, raising the sub-totals to 42 for the GOP and 41 for the Democrats. If my above predictions come to fruition, the Republicans will control the Senate 54 to 45 with one Independent. The GOP will retain control of the House of Representatives picking up an additional four to six seats.

Happy voting and happy Election Day.

Sanford D. Horn is a writer and educator living in Westfield, IN.