Commentary by Sanford D. Horn
May 25, 2023
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially launched his campaign for president of the United States last night, Wednesday May 24. He rolled the dice on an unusual format and method, and came up snake eyes - DeSantis was snakebit by the failure of technology to provide him a smooth transition from will he or won’t he to I’m in.
While I have nothing against DeSantis, and should he be the Republican nominee in 2024 I will certainly vote for him. I have to ask, is this his time? Just reelected governor of Florida in 2022, he would complete his second and current term in office in early 2027, giving him an entire year before the Iowa caucuses and first in the nation primary, New Hampshire. With two successful terms as governor, DeSantis, currently only 44, will have concluded his electoral obligations to the people of Florida and have nothing but time to launch his campaign for 2028. While most of the 2024 candidates will have been vanquished in that election cycle, and less likely to run again, save for Vivek Ramaswamy, who at 37 years old today, could sit out even two DeSantis terms and still be one of the younger candidates in 2036, at 51.
If this is DeSantis’s time, with a growing field of GOP nomination seekers, his opportunity to catch and surpass former President Donald Trump becomes increasingly slim. Trump already has, depending upon which poll one reads, anywhere from a 25 to 35 percentage point margin over the Florida governor. On the other hand, with DeSantis officially in the race, voters may be more willing to support him and be able to close the gap with Trump. But it begs the question, if DeSantis is considered the best possible GOP alternative to Trump, wouldn’t it make sense for the rest of the field to bow out? That’s not to say the field won’t shrink organically, and as history dictates, the early frontrunner is guaranteed nothing. After all, was former Florida Governor Jeb Bush elected president in 2016? Or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 2012? Or former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in 2008? Or former New York Senator Hillary Clinton in 2008?
But the 2024 election campaign will be an unusual one - of course that goes without saying as it involves Trump, hoping to do his best impersonation of former President Grover Cleveland. And as anyone with a pulse knows, Trump is more than a bit polarizing. Make no mistake, if Trump is the GOP standard bearer in 2024, he will garner my vote. I voted for him in the general elections of 2016 and 2020. I just don’t see him winning a national race next year, in spite of Joe Biden’s glaringly, painfully, excruciatingly, miserable time in the White House - failures aplenty - gas prices, prices in general, weakening military, embarrassing Afghanistan surrender, mortgage equity debacle, a return to energy dependence, and of course, the invasion at the southern border.
All that said, Trump can’t get out of his own way - he’s still harping on the 2020 election, a “perfect phone call,” and will forever be blamed for January 6, 2021. While I agree there was chicanery and a less than honest outcome in the 2020 election, sans hardcore proof, there’s virtually nothing that can be done, and certainly not now, two and a half years into the next administration.
And the juxtaposition of Trump continues. He’s bombastic and more direct than might typically be expected of the diplomacy of a politician. On the other hand, as I told so many people who didn’t like Trump’s antics, but knew what a good job he had done as president, we’re not electing Miss Congeniality. And if history is fair, Trump will go down as one of the best one term presidents in American history, with, in my opinion, the likes of John Adms and James K. Polk.
So the question remains, can DeSantis close the gap and overtake Trump? Can DeSantis, a decorated Navy veteran with both legislative and executive experience as a member of Congress and governor, govern as successfully as Trump, but without the circus atmosphere that sometimes befell his administration? DeSantis has experienced tremendous success as governor of Florida, keeping the state open and vital during Covid, and welcoming more than 580,000 new legal Floridians in 2022.
Even lifelong New Yorker Trump became a Florida resident in 2019, so all his grandstanding about Florida failing under DeSantis is Trump posturing as a candidate would. Yet, by doing so, by going after DeSantis with a sledgehammer, Trump is repeatedly violating Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment: “Thou shalt not speak ill of thy fellow Republican.” Sadly, Trump is not the only candidate to violate that commandment over the last many election cycles. Yet while Trump assails DeSantis, DeSantis in his kickoff speech, directed his criticisms appropriately after Biden; after all, it’s Biden that the GOP, whoever the nominee is, wants to defeat in 2024.
If not Trump, if not DeSantis, the GOP scorecard is fast filling up as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott declared his candidacy on Monday May 22 to join fellow Palmetto Stater Nikki Haley, the former governor and United Nations ambassador. Also declared are radio talk show host and attorney Larry Elder, who unsuccessfully challenged Gavin Newsom in the California recall for governor, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and the aforementioned Ramaswamy - any of this septet would be a far cry better than the current occupant of the White House.
I happen to be wavering in my support between the two South Carolinians, Haley and Scott, but Elder and Ramaswamy have solid ideas as well. But do any of that quartet have enough gas in the tank to get them across the finish line? And there’s still the possibility of former Vice President Mike Pence throwing his hat in the ring. I like Pence personally, but see the previous question. If it’s a choice between DeSantis and Trump for the GOP nomination, DeSantis can beat Biden. Isn’t that the goal in 2024?
Sanford D. Horn is a writer and educator living in Indiana.
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